Published on: 23rd December 2019
After seemingly flatlining in the last few months, markets improved since the election and not just on the near landslide UK election outcome. Boris Johnson has the majority to “get Brexit done” and remove some of the uncertainty that has held back business activity. Many of us independent financial advisers breathed a collective sigh of relief that a Corbyn government wouldn’t now be introducing harsh taxation regimes. That being said, we have a budget to look forward to, probably in March 2020.
Commentators suggest we can expect an initial sharp upwards market correction, but the longer-term perspective depends on our future relationship with the EU. The reason, however, that stock markets around the world surged upwards on election Friday had more to do with US President Trump tweeting (bless ‘im) that the first phase of a trade deal with China had been agreed ‘in principle’; thankfully confirmed by China later that day.
Recent economic data shows that the global economy is no longer slowing, and businesses – across Europe in particular – are looking more optimistically to the future. This has led to a more positive outlook to 2020 than seemed possible just a few months ago.
We’re not yet on firm ground, but the outlook is more favourable than it was during the summer. So, a reasonable forecast according to economists is, that, after this roller-coaster ride, 2020 may see us entering calmer waters. I’d prefer to say we are cautiously optimistic.